Trends in collection, analysis and forecasting of air accidents

By | 12.02.2018

Recently, the task of air crashes forecasting and warning is becoming more actual. Not only russian air companies and also air companies in the whole world are interested in it.

The available forecasting methods are not universal, so in every single case particular forecasting methods are needed. Also methods can be adapted in every case.

Forecasting and preventing system for air crashes

One of such systems which is fully automated, is worth considering. It was developed in Ulyanovsk State University. These are its capabilities:

  1. Fast forecasting of accident possibility which can take place in following flight. The system marks factors that can cause a dangerous situation and their combinations with each other. It shows the possibility of forecast adjustments, considering variations of aviating
  2. Long-term forecast of critical situations periods during the flight, also including the possibility of making adjustments.
  3. Quantitative assessment of risks in flight safety, also in costs. This procedure is based on the analysis of operational data which is received from different air companies.
  4. Developing management projects in and estimating their efficiency.

But to make this system functioning a big number of expert probability estimations is needed, and that’s not possible in practice. Also the system works with limited set of accidents and determines only the level of risk, not the frequency of accidents.

Basic forecast creation model

To create an operational forecast, “events trees” are used. “Events trees” are chains formed by special experts based on earlier events that are interrelated. This process is based on cause-effect relationships which form a certain level system. Expert or statistical values are used as qualitative coefficients. In case of their absence values formed by the algorithm are used.

For every event an “events tree” is created, then it’s used to estimate the level and probability of a near future air accident. As a result estimations are accumulated and afterwards the system can set itself up faster using completed analyses.

The alternative method of solving forecast problem is using self-learning structures. In this case normal perceptrons can be used and also recurrent neural networks LSTM which a traditionally applied in the tasks with time rows. Nowadays theory of approximation and extrapolation of functions and neural network methods are widespread. They are used in forecasting the behavior of a certain function which depends on a multidimensional vector of characteristics, including time.

Actual standards for air companies

Nowadays there are many organizations, official regulations, different requirements and obligations that are presented to air companies. But it’s worth considering the most significant organizations that control passengers safety during the flight and work with air accidents.

First of all it’s worth considering ICAO organization — a special institution that was founded by UN in 1947. It sets the regulation for civil aviation which are international. In addition, ICAO coordinates the development processes in aviation. The main goal is increasing the level of security and efficiency.

Another company that coordinates air flights is US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). This main agency in US was established in 1958.

Main functions of FAA are the follows:

  1. Commercial space programs management — programs that are not funded by the government
  2. Civil aviation control, reaching the highest safety level for passengers on board
  3. Developing national aerospace system

FAA has rights to issue licenses to private and commercial pilots. License from FAA is an official document that confirms that pilot is allowed to control the plane.

One more important agency in aviation is International Aviation Committee of Russian Federation. It is an executive committee of 11 states of the former USSR. Was founded in 1991 and based on the “Agreement about Civil Aviation on the use of air space”. The staff of the Aviation Safety Service of the Ministry of Defence of Russian Federation is involved in controlling flights and investigating air accidents.

All three organizations described above strictly control flights safety and oblige all existing air companies in the world to report about all air accidents.

How the data about air accidents is used to prevent them?

The data about the accidents that happened help to significantly reduce their amount, because every company takes its accidents into account. As a result the company knows about its shortcomings, so the next flying plane is being checked more thoroughly, more attention is paid to the factors that caused the accident.

The accident that occured in one air company, makes another company work with their aircraft more seriously. It causes more and more additional checks.

In addition, such data can significantly affect the calculation of insurance payments. The payments are calculated using the number of air accidents that occured in this air company within a certain period of time.

The safety rating of air companies is also calculated using this data, and you can always find it on every air company website.

The forecasting is made to reduce the accident rate and thereby improve the safety rating of a certain air company. It makes possible to prevent the accident and peoples death. Forecasting is an important aspect in air transportation.

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